Tuesday 23 February 2016

Is Odey still bearish or turning bullish?

This time last year, Crispin Odey, the quintessentially British upper class hedge fund manager, hit the headlines when he turned particularly bearish, predicting a global economic downturn that will be "remembered in a hundred years" and leave stock markets facing devastation.

But it appears the charismatic Odey is - potentially - changing his tune. Well, at least with regards to the US economy in the short term.

According to Odey's latest missive to investors in his flagship fund seen by little old Betaville, US gross national product growth is likely to beat expectations in 2016 although he describes this a "problem". Why? Because it will force the US Federal Reserve to increase interest rates to by "at least over 1pc" over the next year.

Odey, a jolly nice chap who can often be found at Mayfair haunts such as Scott's and 5 Hertford Street, points out that "in the US there is both consumer-fuelled lending taking place even as corporates are finding life difficult".

So, Odey concludes: "No wonder that the stock markets are also finding life difficult. Earnings are falling and wage costs are rising. At the same time the Fed is already very behind in raising interest rates."

Odey's flagship fund was up 7.2pc in January (remember he had a terrible April 2016 when the flagship fund fell almost 20pc).

He has short equity positions in Lafarge Holcim, Fiat Chrysler, Advanced Micro Devices, Las Vegas Sands, Home Retail Group (ouch!) and LVMH. 

Odey's long equity positions are in Randgold Resources, Tungsten, Sky, Bank of America, Pendragon and Sports Direct. 

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