Tuesday, 15 December 2015

Shell / BG Group worries - part 3

There has been a lot of debate in the British financial press in recent weeks about whether Shell should press ahead with its multi-billion pound purchase of rival BG Group.

Ian McVeigh of Jupiter Fund Management has been particularly vocal in his opposition, likening the transaction to Royal Bank of Scotland's disastrous purchase of Dutch rival ABN Amro at the height of the credit boom. Read all about it here:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/epic/rdsa/11981426/Shell-shareholders-should-think-carefully-about-BG-takeover.html 

And every time the oil price slides another few dollars the jitters and opponents to the mega deal resurface, especially as Shell is using some of its hard earned cash to pay for BG Group. 

But before you sign up with the naysayers have a look at what has happened to the value of Shell's cash and stock offer for BG Group since the deal was first announced. 

When Shell agreed the deal in April, its offer for BG Group was worth about £13.67 a share, according to my numerate friends in the City. Now, though, the oil giant's offer is worth between £10.30 a share and £10.40 a share, according to those friends. That's a decline of around 25pc - roughly what most European oil shares, such as BP, have fallen since the Shell deal was announced.     

So, there are some much cleverer people than me arguing that perhaps the argument Shell is overpaying for BG Group doesn't quite stack up...

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